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bruce the vii wrote:

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[quote="tikiliberationfront"]Until I actually see your numbers (the data and resultant statistics and not any calculations/conclusions you may have derived from them), I call bullshit

No problem, thanks for the response.

I used the best performance of Calgary in 2008 as given in CANSIM table 282-0053 (at $3 a series) and compared it to the performance of the GTA (technically the CMA- Census Metropolitian Area) in July 2009 from CANSIM table 282-0900 (at $3 a series).

The difference to note is Calgary had 74.4% of adults working in 2008 while last month the Toronto area only had 61.56% of adults working. That's what you need to know.

The arithmetic is the number of people working in Calgary is 74.4% and there were 2.51% unemployed for a "adult participation in the labour force" of 77.1% (add the two). You subtract the percent adults working in Toronto( 61.56%)from that for 15.54%. You have to prorate that from a base of "adult" to a base of 77.1% of adults, the labour force. So 20.16% unemployment. Calgary has a younger population, some 2.52% over 64 less than Toronto so I simply subtract that from the 20.16% unemployment for 17.65% real unemployment in Toronto in July. I actually adjust the older population for older as a percent of "adult" and add some back in as older people do work to get my original estimate.

You can check the age data by going to Statistics Canada home page and selecting "Community".

Any look at the labour force survey shows you variation in the level of the labour force in the adult population. So what gives. It's obviously down is depressed areas. People drop out of the labour force and off Statistics Canada radar. I my trick is to use cities at full employment as a reference point for the natural level of the labour force. I have researched this and found cities in Canada, the USA and the UK all at full employment and all with the same level of labour force. So it's a reasonable technique.[/quote]

Tiki should do the arithmetic I suggest. In the first place he's talked with me for years about this without actually doing the arithemetic. In the second place he actually asked for the methodology. And finally the unreliablity of the official unemployment figure is a hole in the science of economics. Internationally it's a multi-trillion dollar coffee. The problem is the Western countries will immigrate based on the official unemployment figure and this leads to millions of people migrating into a situation of high unemployment, the cost is trillions.

You can get a grip on the problem by going to Statistics Canada Home Page and clicking on "Community". The Census data for cities comes up. You can look at the employment-rate for any city in Alberta and look at the employment rate for Montreal, Toronto and Vancouver and see a gap. This would take 10 to 15 minutes. To get the figures I have you have to poo around with a calculator for half an hour.

Even then you are not done. Statistics Canada gives an full time equivalence of people working involuntarily part time. That adds another 2%. I make the guestimate that there is another 1% in involuntary part time self employed. Calgary is not as tight as Red Deer and the Red Deer data indicates the participation rate is very sentative to unemployment and Calgary's situation can be improved upon, maybe 2%. Finally data is available from the City of Toronto on the 416 on a monthly basis and the 416 is behind the 905. The real level of unemployment in the 416 maybe above 20%. As billthecat says these numbers need interpretation. They are properly called "indicators".

……………………Unemployment in the City of Toronto

I calculate the real unemployment in the City of Toronto, the 416, is 22.7% as of July, 2009.

The arithmetic is based on the higher number of people working in full employment situations, where people that want a job have rejoined the labour force. I use Calgary in 2008 as reference.

The number of people in the labour force in Calgary in 2008 was 77.1% of adults. Meanwhile the number of people working in Metro in July is 59.1%. The difference is taken and prorated to the labour force level of 77.1%. Calgary has less older people who don't work so I subtract 3.9%. I then add in 2.3% because Statistics Canada R7 indicates that's the effective unemployment in "involuntary part time" work. I also add 1% for involuntary part time self-employed, an analogy to involuntary part time. This is a guestimate. Voila 22.7%. It might actually be slightly higher, as there's room for improvement in Calgary.